Putin and the Berserkers
Events in Ukraine, most ordinary Russians believe, are the result of what the main actor in the current drama has called the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century”, the collapse of the USSR.
The dismantling of the empire was a rushed affair, and it was clear to all the participants involved in the Belovezhskaya pushcha negotiations that revisions, including adjustments to boundaries, would be needed later. Soon afterwards Henry Kissinger noted: “If the program of international assistance to Russia after the end of the Cold War achieves its purpose, then the growth of Russia’s power will have geopolitical consequences along the whole extended periphery of the former Russian empire… As soon as Russia recovers economically, its pressure on neighboring countries will inevitably grow.” Kissinger continued his thought by quoting General von Sekt, who was responsible for rebuilding Germany’s armed forces after the humiliation of the Treaty of Versailles: ‘We must recover our strength and then, naturally, recover what we have lost”.
One of the main Western support measures for the “democratic transformations” during Yeltsin’s time was close cooperation in the energy sphere. Commentators have noted that the feeble reaction to Russia’s actions in Crimea and Ukraine is the result of Europe’s dependency on Russian energy. This situation can change quite quickly, and there is a growing list of countries ready to replace Russian energy contracts. This process will take a few years, but in the meantime the Kremlin will have time to maneuver toward a new self-contained, autarchic economic system. This will basically entail reformatting the space of the old USSR to accommodate Russia’s new role (or the one it sees for itself). What then? Then there is the reorientation towards China, which is already willing to absorb all the newly available resources. The necessary transport infrastructure is already under construction, at the usual breakneck speed. You have to ask, though, whether this is not a question of out of the frying pan and into the fire, given China’s record for driving a hard bargain, its well-known territorial claims and lack of moral scruple in its dealings with outsiders.
The Russian leadership knows that the technology gap is growing and is now too wide to overcome. So it resorts to a tried and trusted method – the “smash-and-grab economy”. The annexation of Crimea is like an adrenalin rush for the official class. It has opened up huge opportunities for corruption and given a new lease of life to schemes developed to exploit the Sochi Olympics. These can now be extended to the new Russian province that has appeared, as if by magic, right next door. Railways, roads, pipelines, tunnels, bridges, tourism infrastructure will all have to be built at top speed regardless of cost. It is, after all, a matter of national prestige. This will create a temporary economic boost, to be followed by the inevitable recession. Unless, of course, another raid can be arranged…
This is, by the way, the first time since the formation of the League of Nations that one state has grown its territory at the expense of another. Until now all we have seen is fragmentation and secession in the name of the much-abused “right to self-determination”. This right has no place in the Russian Federation’s legal code, and anyone calling for independence is treated as a criminal. However, Russia’s decision to apply the principle to justify swallowing part of a neighbor has created extreme anxiety all along its perimeter. For the last decade Russia has been building up its armory. The military industrial complex has been the only branch of the economy that has seen any real growth and the top echelons are only too keen to see this investment put into action, for as long as nobody stops them.
The Russian elite sees the West as debauched, its politicians feeble, its electorates passive and sated, its youth fixated on “bearded ladies”. It’s usual tactic is to pick a fight and see what comes out of it. It doesn’t think, or doesn’t care, that taking back lost ground is a gift to those circles, especially in the US, which see this confrontation as an opportunity for political consolidation, mobilization of resources, and a new, once and for all push for energy self-sufficiency. It’s possible the predator will be fed steadily more tidbits until he loses all self-control and is finally placed outside the law (as happened in another time to another country). In its turn the Russian leadership might be seduced by the lure of imperial renaissance (or, from another perspective, succumb to total chauvinist hysteria) and try to expand at the expense of weaker neighbors, so increasing the arc of instability along the perimeter. It’s questionable whether it is in their interests to do so. Unleashing a wave of civil wars on the doorstep will bring an increasing likelihood of being drawn into the conflicts. After all, the frontiers are long and highly porous.
When Putin placed a bouquet of flowers on the grave of a football hooligan killed in street clashes between fans and migrants a few years back, it marked a shift towards an ultranationalist ideology. This has only intensified since. Now it is Putin’s turn to be manipulated by the ultras he has nurtured. The votes in Luhansk and Donetsk are a classic case of the tail wagging the dog. And the longer he delays taking radical action, the smaller his room for maneuver. The mood on the street is so worked up, the propaganda so hysterical, that any act of external aggression will be met with public jubilation. Nobody bothers to calculate the price that will have to be paid, either immediately now, or in the future.
As for Ukraine, it has to be recognized that this project is yet another example of unsuccessful state-building in the post-Soviet space. Ukraine failed to reform state institutions inherited from the Soviet imperial structure and continued to live with a border that ignored historical reality. In the 23 years following independence absolutely nothing was done toward creating a fully functioning, modern democracy. At the very least, this would have involved developing a decentralized system in which Kiev would have acted as a moderator between the antagonistic eastern and western halves of the country. Kiev’s arguments against Moscow’s calls for federalization are absurd, though one has to sympathize with their assertion that federalism Putin-style has long since become a parody. A federation has to be the natural form of government for the patchwork of ethnicity and allegiance that makes up Ukraine. It is the structure that has to be developed if Ukrainians want to preserve the country in the boundaries inherited from the USSR.
So far the Ukrainian elite has shown itself unequal to the challenges facing the country. Its extreme weakness, susceptibility to corruption and clan loyalties are reminiscent of the times when its lands were controlled by competing warlords. Balkanization and years of internal bloodletting of varying levels of intensity are a perfectly possible outcome. The world is not prepared to pay an unlimited price to prevent Ukraine’s collapse into chaos.
A Holy War is not the same as a jihad, as many suppose. It is not a war of faith, nor war in the name of a sacred cause: it is the sanctification of war as such. Comrade Stalin knew what he was doing when he introduced a religious component into Bolshevik atheism. The seminarist in him allowed the war against Hitler to be called a holy war.
A nation for whom war is the chief ingredient of its national identity is easily drawn into adventures of any kind. As long as it is fed an image of the enemy, it will happily go into battle under the banner of a crusade, while the elite gets on with its true purpose in life, the amassing of riches. Among the ancient practioners of blessed combat, the Vikings stood out for their ferocity. Their front ranks were filled with the berserkers, warriors who literally whipped themselves into a frenzy before battle. The Viking business model was to raid near and far with extreme violence, and they were a nightmare to all of coastal Western Europe. Now their descendants represent some of the most prosperous and peaceful communities on earth. Which means, there’s hope yet.
